IBIT: Bitcoin's $126,000 top, the 50% bust, and three recipes that beat holding it
The Market Wave Algorithm for ETFs against the iShares Bitcoin Trust in three windows. Buy and hold and DCA beaten in all three.
The largest spot bitcoin ETF, and the simplest way to own the most volatile major asset in the world.
Why this case study, and why now
Bitcoin peaked at $126,210 on October 6, 2025 and lost half its value by February. IBIT holders rode the whole trip: $72 to $33. The August rally has brought the ETF back to $45, and every holder now faces the same question. Buy more, hold, or sell into strength? Most will decide on feel.
This study asks three questions, each with its own window and its own recipe of the Market Wave Algorithm for ETFs.
Can you build a position through a decline without catching the top?
Strategy+16.5%
- Buy and hold
- −12.4%
- DCA
- +10.5%
Can you trade a downtrend and finish ahead?
Strategy+32.6%
- Buy and hold
- −11.2%
- DCA
- +10.8%
What happens across a full peak and decline?
Strategy+61.7%
- Buy and hold
- +30.9%
- DCA
- −6.8%
Every run starts from the same hypothetical $100,000 in cash and zero shares.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
The subject
IBIT is the iShares Bitcoin Trust, BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF. Each share represents a fraction of a bitcoin held by a custodian. It launched in January 2024 and became the largest bitcoin fund in the world. It trades like a stock, in a brokerage account, and it moves like bitcoin.
The price history since our first window opened.
- August 2024IBIT near $34, bitcoin near $60,000, seven months after launch.
- November to December 2024The post-election run. Bitcoin crosses $100,000, IBIT crosses $60.
- April 2025The tariff shakeout. IBIT back near $45, then a new run.
- October 6, 2025Bitcoin's all time high of $126,210. IBIT peaks near $72.
- February 6, 2026Bitcoin near $60,000, 52% off the peak. IBIT near $33.
- Feb to Jul 2026A record $2.8 billion spot ETF outflow streak. IBIT chops between $33 and $46
- August 2026Spot ETF inflows return, bitcoin gains 22% in a week, IBIT trades near $45.
Here is the catch that matters for this study. IBIT made bitcoin easy to buy and did nothing to make it easy to hold. The holder got the full drawdown with none of the ideology that keeps bitcoiners from selling.
The investor's dilemma
Bitcoin ETFs put a 50% drawdown asset into an ordinary brokerage account. That sets up three failure modes.
Round trip riding
A holder from December 2024 bought near $60, watched $72 in October, and watched $33 in February. Twenty months, a peak, and a loss. Nothing was sold at the top because nothing was ever going to be sold.
The "too high" freeze
At $33 in February, buying felt like catching a knife. At $45 today, buying feels late. The holder who waited for a comfortable entry is still waiting.
Narrative whiplash
Record ETF inflows in 2024, record outflows in 2026, then record inflows again in August. Each headline arrived after the move it explained. Trading the headlines meant buying high and selling low.
Dollar cost averaging deserves credit. It kept buying through February and July and beat buy and hold this year. But DCA buys blind, never sells, and never realizes a dollar. Over two years it bought $72 as eagerly as $33 and finished down 6.8%.
A rules-based algorithm restores a basis built on the dips, profit taken on the runs, and no decision left to feel.
The algorithm
The Market Wave Algorithm for ETFs is Arch Public's algorithm for exchange-traded funds. It does three things a human holder struggles to do at the same time.
Ride confirmed moves
It buys when price breaks above the wave with a buffer, and adds when the move holds. It does not need to know why bitcoin is moving.
Exit on rules, not nerves
It sells a set share of the position when a target is hit or the trend flips. It sold IBIT into the late 2025 peak, and again on the way down.
Step aside in chop
When price sits inside the wave, it waits in cash. The 2026 recipes sat through the spring range without a single buy.
Every recipe uses three levers: wave scope (0.5 micro to 20 macro), entry and exit thresholds, and trade size. The accumulator: macro scope 18.5, half the cash per buy, built to build a position. The downtrend trade: scope 19, both trend filters, full exit, built to bank rallies. The full cycle: micro scope 1, sell on trend change, built for regime shifts.
Macro scope 18.5, half the cash per buy, built to build a position.
Scope 19, both trend filters, full exit, built to bank rallies.
Micro scope 1, sell on trend change, built for regime shifts.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“The accumulator”
January 1 to August 25, 2026 · Four hour chart · Macro recipe, sell above only
Suppose you wanted to own IBIT this year, but not at January's price. IBIT opened near $51, fell to $33 by February, bounced to $46 in May, and sat near $35 through July. Buy and hold lost 12.4%. DCA earned 10.5%.
The algorithm bought seven times, all between $33 and $39. It never sold. It was not built to.
+16.5%
- Buy and hold −12.4%, outperformance +28.9 percentage points
- DCA +10.5%, outperformance +6 percentage points
- Ending value
- $116,445
- Unrealized profit
- $16,445
- Shares held
- 2,558 at $38.48 avg cost
- Cash
- $1,578
Backtested results on the four hour chart, valued August 25, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“The downtrend trade”
January 1 to August 25, 2026 · Hourly chart · Macro recipe, both trend filters on
Same window, same $100,000, but this recipe trades the decline instead of just buying it. IBIT fell from $51 to $33, rallied to $46, fell back to $33, and ran to $45 in August. Buy and hold lost 11.2%. DCA earned 10.8%.
The algorithm bought the February lows, sold everything into the April rally near $45, rebuilt near $34 in July, and held through this month's run.
+32.6%
- Buy and hold −11.2%, outperformance +43.8 percentage points
- DCA +10.8%, outperformance +21.8 percentage points
- Ending value
- $132,602
- Realized profit
- $5,601
- Unrealized profit
- $27,001
- Shares held
- 2,771 at $35.13 avg cost
- Cash
- $8,267
Backtested results on the hourly chart, valued August 25, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“The full cycle”
August 25, 2024 to August 25, 2026 · Weekly chart · Micro recipe, buy below only, sell on trend change
The whole story. $100,000 into IBIT at $34 in August 2024, the run past $60, the peak at $72, the fall to $33. Buy and hold earned 30.9%, most of it ten months old.
The algorithm bought the September 2024 low, sold into the December run, rebuilt on the spring 2025 dip, sold twice into the October peak, sold again in January, and rebuilt near $35 this year.
+61.7%
- Buy and hold +30.9%, outperformance +30.8 percentage points
- DCA −6.8%, outperformance +68.5 percentage points
- Ending value
- $161,678
- Realized profit
- $35,683
- Shares held
- 3,685 at $36.63 avg cost
- Cash
- $717
Backtested results on the weekly chart, valued August 25, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Side by side
| The accumulator | The downtrend trade | The full cycle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Window | Jan 1 to Aug 25, 2026 | Jan 1 to Aug 25, 2026 | Aug 25, 2024 to Aug 25, 2026 |
| Chart | Four hour | Hourly | Weekly |
| Recipe | Scope 18.5, sell above only | Scope 19, both trend filters | Scope 1, buy below only |
| Strategy return | +16.5% | +32.6% | +61.7% |
| Buy and hold | −12.4% | −11.2% | +30.9% |
| Outperformance | +28.9 pts | +43.8 pts | +30.8 pts |
| DCA | +10.5% | +10.8% | −6.8% |
| Outperformance vs DCA | +6 pts | +21.8 pts | +68.5 pts |
| Ending value | $116,445 | $132,602 | $161,678 |
| Realized profit | $0 | $5,601 | $35,683 |
| Shares held | 2,558 | 2,771 | 3,685 |
| Avg cost basis | $38.48 | $35.13 | $36.63 |
| Cash | $1,578 | $8,267 | $717 |
All three from $100,000 and zero shares.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Why the results differ
The three scenarios are the same algorithm answering three different questions.
The accumulator asks: how do I build a position without buying the top?
Answer: Buy below a long wave, half the cash at a time, never sell. Basis $38.48.
The downtrend trade asks: can a falling market pay me?
Answer: Add a full-size exit. One round trip, $5,601 realized, a better basis.
The full cycle asks: what happens through a peak?
Answer: Sell on trend change near the top, rebuild near the bottom.
Buy and hold is one decision, endured. DCA is one schedule, followed blind. Neither sold at $72.
The edge is not prediction. No recipe knew October 6 was the top. They were paid by rules.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
The real lesson
- 01
A volatile asset needs a plan for the way down
Bitcoin's 50% drawdowns are the price of its returns. Rules that sell on trend change turned the last one into $35,683 of cash instead of a paper loss.
- 02
Buying the dip is a recipe, not a feeling
The accumulator bought seven times between $33 and $39 and never once at $51. Every human dip buyer this year bought at least one that kept falling.
- 03
The same window has more than one right answer
Accumulate or trade, the choice is a recipe setting. Both beat buy and hold and DCA this year. The question is which job you want done.
The client decision is exactly that. Build a bitcoin position at a low basis, or trade bitcoin's swings for realized cash. The Market Wave Algorithm for ETFs has a recipe for each, and IBIT just showed both.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
A path forward
Arch Public runs the Market Wave Algorithm for ETFs in your own brokerage account. Zero custody: your money never leaves. Full control: your recipe, your size, your off switch. Rules, not reactions: no flow headlines, no waiting for a comfortable entry.
A buy and holder from August 2024 has +30.9% and a ten month drawdown. The same $100,000 under the full cycle recipe has $161,678, with $35,683 realized.
What do you want your account doing the next time bitcoin drops 50%?
A buy and holder from August 2024
+30.9%
The same $100,000 under the full cycle recipe
$161,678
With $35,683 realized
The comparison that matters is the two 2026 columns. Same window, same ETF, same starting cash. One recipe only bought and finished with 2,558 shares at $38.48. The other bought, sold the April rally, and bought again, finishing with 2,771 shares at $35.13 plus $5,601 realized. The difference between +16.5% and +32.6% is one sell signal the accumulator was never asked to take.