The most owned stock in America, finally managed
How the Market Wave Algorithm for Equities beat dollar-cost averaging on AAPL in every window we tested, from a two-year chop to a nine-year mega trend.
Why this case study, and why now
Apple is the most universally held equity in America. It sits inside nearly every index fund and retirement account, and almost no one who owns it has ever made an active decision about it. We ran the Market Wave Algorithm for Equities on AAPL three ways, all starting from the same $100,000 in cash and zero shares.
Trade the chop
Strategy+59.2%
- DCA
- +30.4%
Pure accumulation
Strategy+41.7%
- DCA
- +10.3%
Capture the trend
Strategy+607.3%
- DCA
- +231.4%
One algorithm, three tests. Each one beat the disciplined passive benchmark by a wide margin.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Apple: the stock everyone owns and nobody decides about
The most valuable company in the world at roughly $4.9 trillion, and arguably the single most widely held equity in the United States. Its split-adjusted history is powerful compounding punctuated by repeated, credible-feeling crises.
- 2017Split-adjusted near $37
- 2018 to 1938% drawdown on the China revenue warning
- 2020Pandemic crash, then the 4-for-1 split
- 2022 to 2330% bear market, low near $125
- 2025Worst performer in big tech, down roughly 15%
- Jun 2026Slide into the $270s off a spring high near $317
- Jul 2026All-time high of $334.68, most valuable company in the world
A decade of holding, zero decisions
The anchor problem
Everyone remembers what they paid, or the peak. In June 2026 an investor watched Apple slide from $317 to the $270s and evaluated a loss against a number in their head, not the trend on the chart.
Narrative whiplash
Apple's story flipped twice in eighteen months. Missed AI and exposed to tariffs in 2025; best pipeline in years and the top market cap in the world by July 2026. Same company, opposite conclusions.
Paralysis of the core holding
Because Apple is usually one of the largest positions in a retirement account, every decision feels enormous. Selling feels like betraying the thesis; buying more feels like concentration risk. So the default is doing nothing, forever.
Monthly DCA is the standard cure. It removes emotion and beat doing nothing in all three windows. But it buys the same dollar amount at $274 or $334, cannot tell an uptrend from a falling knife, and never sells, which means it can never turn a paper gain into money.
What the Market Wave Algorithm for Equities actually does
Arch Public's trend and momentum capture algorithm. Three jobs, run with rules instead of emotions.
Ride confirmed moves
Enters on rule-based confirmation of a trend, not a hunch, a headline, or a feeling that a price is too high or too low.
Exit on rules, not nerves
Where its recipe calls for it, it takes profit into strength on defined triggers, banking gains into cash rather than holding every share on principle.
Step aside cleanly
In chop and indecision it will hold cash and wait, which is exactly when human investors tend to overtrade.
The algorithm is configurable. The same logic on the same chart can work the swings and bank cash, or trade far less and build a low-cost-basis position. Scenarios 1 and 2 change only the recipe.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“Trade the chop”
Jul 15, 2024 to Jul 9, 2026 · Daily chart
+59.2%
- DCA +30.4%, outperformance +28.8 percentage points
- Ending value
- $159,232
- Realized profit, banked
- $10,433
- Unrealized profit, open
- $48,799
- Shares held
- 438 at $204.77 avg cost
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“Pure accumulation”
Jul 15, 2024 to Jul 9, 2026 · Daily chart · Same chart, new recipe
+41.7%
- DCA +10.3%, outperformance +31.4 percentage points
- Ending value
- $141,735
- Realized profit
- $0
- Unrealized profit, open
- $41,735
- Shares held
- 380 at $206.33 avg cost
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“Capture the trend”
Jul 2017 to Jul 2026 · Weekly chart
+607.3%
- DCA +231.4%, outperformance +375.9 percentage points
- Ending value, from $100,000
- $707,301
- Realized cash banked, more than double the starting capital
- $212,630
- Shares still held, roughly double the DCA benchmark's 987
- 1,893
- Average cost, against a stock near $329
- $120.10
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Three windows, one algorithm
| Daily, swing recipe | Daily, accumulation | Weekly, long-term trend | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Window | Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 | Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 | Jul 2017 to Jul 2026 |
| Starting capital | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 |
| Strategy ending value | $159,232 | $141,735 | $707,301 |
| Strategy ROI | +59.2% | +41.7% | +607.3% |
| DCA benchmark ROI | +30.4% | +10.3% | +231.4% |
| Outperformance vs DCA | +28.8 pts | +31.4 pts | +375.9 pts |
| Realized profit, banked | $10,433 | $0 | $212,630 |
| Unrealized profit, open | $48,799 | $41,735 | $394,671 |
| Shares held at end | 438 | 380 | 1,893 |
| Average cost basis | $204.77 | $206.33 | $120.10 |
| Cash on hand at end | $20,745 | $21,593 | $85,280 |
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
The recipe is the product
Three different numbers do not mean one run is right and the others are noise. They are the same algorithm answering three different questions.
Work this stock's volatility?
+59.2%. $10,433 realized, $48,799 unrealized, 438 shares at $204.77.
Just own it well?
+41.7%. 0 closed trades, $78,407 deployed, 380 shares at $206.33.
Run it for the long term?
+607.3%. $212,630 realized, 1,893 shares at $120.10, $85,280 in cash.
Across nine years a dollar-cost averager banked $0 and held 987 shares. The algorithm banked $212,630 and held 1,893. The edge is not prediction. It is one emotion-free posture, chosen on purpose.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
The next big cycle is already starting
In 2017 Apple was mature, widely owned, and fully understood. The bull case was boring; the bear case was credible. What followed was a roughly eightfold move through a 38% drawdown, a pandemic crash, a bear market, and a year as its peer group's worst. Almost nobody held it with a plan. That pattern is what transfers.
- 01
A great decade still contains terrible years
Apple's nine-year run includes 2025, when it was big tech's worst performer. Twelve months later it was the most valuable company in the world. A rule navigates that. A stomach does not.
- 02
Taking profit and building a position are not opposites
The weekly run banked $212,630 and still finished holding 1,893 shares at $120.10, roughly double the benchmark that never sold. Selling into strength funded buying into weakness.
- 03
The recipe is the product
The same algorithm, same chart, same window produced an active swing result and a zero-turnover accumulation result, within two dollars on cost basis. What you want from a position is an input, not an accident.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Rules-based automation, live on individual stocks
Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Tesla, Meta, Amazon, and more.
Zero custody. Your assets never leave your account.
Full control. Pause, adjust, or stop any strategy at any time.
Rules, not reactions. The algorithm executes the plan, so neither fear nor the refusal to take a profit makes the call.
How much of your largest position is invested with its eyes closed?