Market Wave on BRR
Generating returns in any market regime.
ProCap Financial, Nasdaq: BRR. Jan 1 to Jul 22, 2026, $100,000 starting capital and zero shares.
Three configurations, one algorithm
Over six months, broad market conditions pulled BRR down roughly 44%, the kind of stretch every young high-conviction stock goes through. Passive approaches had no answer. The Market Wave Algorithm for Equities, configured three different ways, finished positive in all three.
Swing configuration
Strategy+40.5%
- vs buy and hold
- +84.8 pts
Small timeframe
Strategy+31.3%
- vs buy and hold
- +77.0 pts
Accumulation focus
Strategy+5.9%
- While building
- 39,267 shares
The same window, without rules: buy and hold -44.3%, DCA -12%.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
ProCap Financial is a Bitcoin-native financial services firm founded in 2025 by Anthony Pompliano. Management has been actively shareholder-aligned, buying Bitcoin to lower cost basis and repurchasing shares when the market misprices them.
That makes BRR an ideal test case: a young, high-conviction public stock with real volatility and strong retail interest. During the test window, broad market conditions produced a roughly 44% drawdown, a demanding, real-world environment to prove the algorithm in.
Volatility is not a bug here. It is the raw material an algorithm converts into returns.
- 2025Founded by Anthony Pompliano
- Jan 1 to Jul 22, 2026Broad market conditions pull BRR down roughly 44%, the test window for this study
For shareholders who believe in the long-term thesis, the question is not whether to believe. It is how to be positioned while the market catches up.
Bias is expensive
Discretionary trading struggles most in volatile stretches. The failure modes are human, and they are universal:
Buy and hold on BRR: $100,000 becomes roughly $55,500
Emotional exits at local bottoms
Hesitation on strong entries
Anchoring to old prices
Headline-driven decisions
Dollar cost averaging: -12%. Steady buying, still underwater.
Rules do not get scared, do not get greedy, and do not need the stock to go up to make money. And when the stock turns, the same rules are already positioned for it.
The setup
The Market Wave Algorithm for Equities is a configurable, rules-based algorithm that defines entries, exits, and position sizing mechanically. This study describes behavior, not proprietary internals.
Common setup
| Setting | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | BRR (ProCap) |
| Period | Jan 1 to Jul 22, 2026 |
| Capital | $100,000 |
| Starting shares | 0 |
Benchmarks
| Benchmark | What it does |
|---|---|
| Do nothing | Hold cash the entire period. |
| Buy and hold | Invest all $100,000 on day one. |
| DCA | Equal buys at regular intervals, all period. |
All figures come from the same algorithm with identical starting conditions. Only configuration differs between scenarios. Chart captures accompany each scenario.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“Swing configuration”
Jan 1 to Jul 22, 2026 · 4 hour chart
+40.5%
- Buy and hold -44.3%, outperformance +84.8 percentage points
- DCA -12%
- Final value
- $140,522
- Realized profit
- +$38,508
- Unrealized
- +$2,013
- Ending position
- 3,413 shares at $1.42
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“Accumulation focus”
Jan 1 to Jul 22, 2026 · 4 hour chart
+5.9%
- Buy and hold -44.5%, outperformance +50.3 percentage points
- DCA -12%
- Final value
- $105,868
- Position built
- 39,267 shares, $78,730
- Avg cost basis
- $1.81
- Unrealized profit and loss
- +$7,501
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“Small timeframe”
Jan 1 to Jul 22, 2026 · 15 minute chart
+31.3%
- Buy and hold -45.7%, outperformance +77.0 percentage points
- DCA -12%
- Final value
- $131,290
- Realized profit
- +$29,316
- Unrealized
- +$1,974
- Ending position
- 3,210 shares at $1.39
Open full-size chart
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Side by side
| Metric | Swing, 4h | Accumulation, 4h | Small timeframe, 15m |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy ROI | +40.5% | +5.9% | +31.3% |
| Final value | $140,522 | $105,868 | $131,290 |
| Realized profit and loss | +$38,508 | -$1,633 | +$29,316 |
| Unrealized profit and loss | +$2,013 | +$7,501 | +$1,974 |
| Ending position | 3,413 at $1.42 | 39,267 at $1.81 | 3,210 at $1.39 |
| Buy and hold | -44.3% | -44.5% | -45.7% |
| DCA | -12% | -12% | -12% |
| vs. buy and hold | +84.8 pts | +50.3 pts | +77.0 pts |
Strategy vs. passive
Three configurations, three trader profiles, one demanding window. Every configuration beat both passive alternatives by 50 to 85 points.
| Approach | Return |
|---|---|
| Swing, 4h | +40.5% |
| Small timeframe, 15m | +31.3% |
| Accumulation, 4h | +5.9% |
| DCA | -12% |
| Buy and hold | -44.3% |
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Why rules beat bias
- 01
Discipline, sustained
Mechanical entries and exits enforce a discipline that is hard for anyone to sustain across six months of choppy markets.
- 02
Built for regimes
These results came in a demanding window. That is the point. A strategy that delivers here delivers in friendlier conditions too.
- 03
Two audiences, one tool
For traders, a tool you configure to your goals. For believers in the stock, a way to be rewarded throughout the journey, not only at the destination.
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
The test proves the algorithm on BRR. The natural next step is running it live.
We would love to put this to work for real.
Same algorithm, other assets and regimes. More case studies to come.