Discipline over conviction on MSTR
How the Market Wave Algorithm for Equities beat the passive benchmarks by as much as 177% across three runs on the market's most believed-in stock.
The same Market Wave algorithm our crypto clients run every day, applied unchanged to a single stock: Strategy (MSTR).
Our first equities test was a stock that drifted. This one moves violently, and is fiercely believed in.
Tesla, our first case study, spent years going sideways. For the second we wanted the opposite kind of test. We took the exact same algorithm, unchanged, and pointed it at MSTR across three windows, each starting from the same hypothetical $100,000 in cash.
Scenario 1
Strategy+181.5%
- DCA
- +3.7%
Scenario 2
Strategy+88.7%
- Buy and hold
- +8.0%
- DCA
- -13.6%
Scenario 3
Strategy+20.2%
- Buy and hold
- -26.2%
Backtested performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
The market's most believed-in stock, and a violent round trip
MSTR built one of the most devoted followings in the market, a community that treats holding as conviction rather than a trade. That belief was rewarded spectacularly, and then it was tested just as hard.
Price levels per public market data. 10-for-1 split effective August 2024. All-time-high close of $473.8 on November 20, 2024. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
- August 202410-for-1 split effective
- November 20, 2024All-time-high close of $473.8
- June 2026Roughly $116, a 75% drawdown from the peak
Conviction is not a strategy
A 15-bagger followed by a 75% drawdown, while a passionate community insists you should never sell, is the position that quietly does the most damage.
Belief never trims, and never re-enters
It never tells you to take a profit into strength or to buy back on confirmation after a washout.
Decision fatigue compounds the damage
A stock this volatile demands hundreds of emotional calls. Decision quality falls as the stakes pile up.
An algorithm takes the bias out
It does not predict MSTR and it does not fall in love with it. It executes a plan.
Conviction tells you to hold the whole way up, which feels like genius, then to hold the whole way down, which feels like loyalty.
It is a reason to be in the stock. It is not a system for deciding when, how much, or at what price.
What Market Wave actually does
Arch Public's trend and momentum capture algorithm, the same one already running across crypto. It does three things with rules instead of emotions, and it treats volatility as the opportunity rather than the enemy.
Ride confirmed moves
It enters on rule-based confirmation of a trend, not on a hunch, a headline, or community sentiment.
Exit on rules, not nerves
It takes profits on defined triggers, banking gains into cash rather than hoping the move runs forever.
Step aside in chop
In indecision it holds cash and waits, exactly when human investors tend to overtrade.
Backtested results. Trading stocks involves significant risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
“Through the entire boom and give-back”
June 16, 2023 to June 17, 2026 · Daily chart
+181.5%
- DCA +3.7%
- $100,000 became
- $281,529
- Realized, banked profit
- $260,841
- Cash on hand at the end
- $139,661
Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, valued June 17, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“The great stock that went nowhere”
March 1, 2024 to June 17, 2026 · Daily chart
+88.7%
- Buy and hold +8.0%
- DCA -13.6%
- $100,000 became
- $188,739
- Realized, banked profit
- $102,859
Backtested from a daily-chart trade schedule, valued June 17, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“A profit in a falling market”
January 1, 2026 to June 17, 2026 · 4-hour chart
+20.2%
- Buy and hold -26.2%, outperformance +46.4 percentage points
- $100,000 became
- $120,223
- Realized, banked profit
- $27,357
Backtested from a 4-hour-chart trade schedule, valued June 17, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Three windows, one pattern
| Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Window | 3-year daily | Post-run daily | 5.5-month 4-hour |
| Strategy return | +181.5% | +88.7% | +20.2% |
| Buy and hold | +8.0% | -26.2% | |
| DCA benchmark | +3.7% | -13.6% | |
| Banked profit | $260,841 | $102,859 | $27,357 |
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Realized cash, not a lucky position
In all three scenarios the open position on June 17, 2026 carried an unrealized loss, because MSTR closed below the strategy's average cost. The banked cash alone carried every result.
$260,841
Realized in Scenario 1
$102,859
Realized in Scenario 2
$27,357
Realized in Scenario 3
The edge is not prediction, and it is not diamond-handed conviction. It is conversion: turning the volatility that believers simply endured into realized gains and cash on the sidelines.
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Discipline beats conviction
- 01
Conviction is not a strategy
Belief told holders to get in and stay in. It never told them when to take a profit, how much to trim, or when to step back in after a washout.
- 02
The round trip is where it gets expensive
A historic run followed by a 75% drawdown is how a 15-bagger turns into an 8.0% buy-and-hold result for the average participant.
- 03
Decision fatigue makes the investor their own worst enemy
The same MSTR price action that produced an 8.0% hold and a 26.2% loss instead produced returns of 88.7% and 20.2% using Arch Public algorithms.
For educational purposes only. Trading stocks involves significant risk.
How much of your portfolio is managed by conviction instead of a strategy?
Arch Public's equities strategies are live, bringing the same algorithms our crypto clients trust to individual stocks. Tesla was the first case study. MSTR is the second.
Zero custody. Your assets never leave your account. Full control. Pause, adjust, or stop any strategy at any time. Rules, not reactions. The algorithm executes the plan, so emotions do not.
In every window the algorithm finished well ahead of the passive alternative, and did so entirely through realized, banked cash rather than a fortunate open position.