Volatility is your edge

In the volatile world of crypto, bear markets and downturns often erode investor capital, turning promising portfolios into significant losses. Arch Public's Arbitrage Algorithm stands out by capitalizing on these challenging conditions through strategic arbitrage opportunities, delivering consistent positive returns even as asset prices decline or stagnate. This case study examines the algorithm's performance across four key cryptocurrencies, Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), and XRP, during documented market downturns between 2021 and 2025. Using a starting capital of $100,000, the algorithm employs dynamic long entry and exit parameters to exploit price inefficiencies, resulting in substantial PnL gains that far outpace traditional buy-and-hold strategies.

The importance of deploying our Arbitrage Algorithm during bear markets cannot be overstated. While bull markets reward passive holding with upward momentum, downturns expose the vulnerabilities of such approaches, leading to drawdowns and opportunity costs. Our algorithm thrives in these environments by actively arbitraging mispricings, generating returns through substantial gains while mitigating downside risk. In fact, running the algorithm in bear phases is arguably more critical than in bull runs, as it transforms market adversity into profitable trades, preserves capital, and positions portfolios for amplified recovery when conditions improve. This study highlights real-world data, demonstrating how the algorithm not only survives but excels in adversity, offering a resilient edge for crypto traders.

Bitcoin

September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024

Arbitrage Algorithm returns

+132.34%

Buy and hold
+48.62%
Profit and loss
$132,339

Ethereum

September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024

Arbitrage Algorithm returns

+85%

Buy and hold
+2.01%
Profit and loss
$85,014

XRP

January 19, 2025 to August 19, 2025

Arbitrage Algorithm returns

+62.29%

Buy and hold
-2.37%
Profit and loss
$62,292

SUI

December 1, 2024 to August 19, 2025

Arbitrage Algorithm returns

+28.08%

Buy and hold
-10.7%
Profit and loss
$28,082

Solana

September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024

Arbitrage Algorithm returns

+421.55%

Buy and hold
+25.85%
Profit and loss
$421,553

Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.

Results

Outperforming in bear markets

BTC · ETH · XRP · SUI · SOL results by scenario
BitcoinEthereumXRPSUISolana
PeriodSeptember 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024January 19, 2025 to August 19, 2025December 1, 2024 to August 19, 2025September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024
Initial capital$100,000$100,000$100,000$100,000$100,000
Profit and loss$132,339$85,014$62,292$28,082$421,553
Profit and loss (%)+132.34%+85%+62.29%+28.08%+421.55%
Holdings, if you held the position to date3.31 BTC52.48 ETH5,997 XRP24,2492,728 SOL
Buy and hold profit and loss$48,617$2,008-$2,373-$10,700$25,850
Buy and hold profit and loss (%)+48.62%+2.01%-2.37%-10.7%+25.85%

Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.

Replicate the strategy

Do it yourself: the settings behind all five runs.

Bitcoin scenario

Initial capital
$100,000
Entry trade
Purchase $2,500 when price drops 5%
Exit trade
Sell $500 when price rises 5%
Sell above cost basis
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024

Ethereum scenario

Initial capital
$100,000
Entry trade
Purchase $2,000 when price drops 5%
Exit trade
Sell $500 when price rises 5%
Sell above cost basis
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024

XRP scenario

Initial capital
$100,000
Entry trade
Purchase $6,000 when price drops 4%
Exit trade
Sell $100,000 when price rises 12%
Sell above cost basis
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
January 19, 2025 to August 19, 2025

SUI scenario

Initial capital
$100,000
Entry trade
Purchase $13,000 when price drops 7%
Exit trade
Sell $15,000 when price rises 9%
Sell above cost basis
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
December 1, 2024 to August 19, 2025

Solana scenario

Initial capital
$100,000
Entry trade
Purchase $1,500 when price drops 7%
Exit trade
Sell $500 when price rises 9%
Sell above cost basis
Checked
Time frame
1 day
Period
September 7, 2021 to April 1, 2024

Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.