Trading All Time Highs Three Ways
Arch Public's Arbitrage Algorithm can be configured for different objectives: accumulating Bitcoin at favorable prices, generating cash yields through strategic sales, or a balanced mix of both.
Making Bitcoin work for you
On March 1, 2024, Bitcoin was trading near its all-time high of approximately $70,000, fueled by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and renewed institutional interest. Market sentiment was bullish yet cautious, as investors recalled the painful drawdown from the previous cycle's peak of around $69,000 in November 2021 to lows near $15,000 in late 2022. Long-term holders, having endured that volatility, were reluctant to risk another major correction that could wipe out significant portions of their portfolios.
Enter Arch Public's Arbitrage Algorithm. It can be configured for different objectives: accumulating Bitcoin at favorable prices, generating cash yields through strategic sales, or a balanced mix of both.
In this case study, we explore how an investor with $100,000 initial capital could have deployed the algorithm starting March 1, 2024. Over the subsequent 17 months, Bitcoin experienced significant swings, dipping to lows around $53,000 in September 2024, rallying to $73,000 in October 2024, lateral movement in early 2025 around $94,000 to $100,000, and ultimately surging to a new all-time high of approximately $120,000 by August 13, 2025.
We simulate three approaches: Accumulation, Cash Yield, and a balanced approach. All outperformed a simple buy-and-hold strategy while minimizing emotional stress from drawdowns, as the algorithm systematically bought low, sold high, and preserved capital during volatility.
Accumulation
Profit and loss+96.5%
- Buy and hold
- +71.4%
- Realized profit
- $12,195
- BTC accumulated
- 1.58 BTC
- CAGR
- 59.2%
Cash yield
Profit and loss+97.8%
- Buy and hold
- +71.4%
- Realized profit
- $90,585
- BTC accumulated
- 0.37 BTC
- CAGR
- 60%
Balanced
Profit and loss+100.4%
- Buy and hold
- +71.4%
- Realized profit
- $61,959
- BTC accumulated
- 1.06 BTC
- CAGR
- 61.4%
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“Building a Bitcoin position at opportune prices”
March 1, 2024 to August 13, 2025 · 6 hour chart · Arbitrage Algorithm
The Accumulation approach prioritizes growing Bitcoin holdings by focusing on buys during dips, with minimal sells to lock in profits only when advantageous. This is ideal for long-term believers wary of overpaying at peaks.
Over the period, the algorithm executed frequent small buys during the uneasy consolidation from March to October 2024, accumulating Bitcoin at an average cost basis of ~$62,000. Sells were limited to capture cash for reinvestment, avoiding full liquidations during rallies like the July 2025 surge to $123,000.
+96.5%
- Buy and hold +71.4%
- Initial capital
- $100,000
- Profit and loss
- $96,509
- Realized profit
- $12,195
- BTC accumulated
- 1.58 BTC
- CAGR
- 59.2%
- Buy and hold profit and loss
- $71,428
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“Taking advantage of volatility”
March 1, 2024 to August 13, 2025 · Daily chart · Arbitrage Algorithm
The Cash Yield approach emphasizes generating fiat returns by selling more aggressively on rallies, using volatility to build a cash buffer. This suits investors seeking liquidity without fully exiting crypto exposure.
The algorithm bought during corrections (e.g., post-January 2025 consolidation) and sold larger portions on rebounds (e.g., December 2024 rally and the 2025 climb to $120,000). This created a compounding cash position, with minimal Bitcoin retained for long-term upside.
By overweighting sells, this strategy produced significant cash yields, outperforming buy-and-hold through active swing trading without the risk of holding through deep drawdowns.
+97.8%
- Buy and hold +71.4%
- Initial capital
- $100,000
- Profit and loss
- $97,866
- Realized profit
- $90,585
- BTC accumulated
- 0.37 BTC
- CAGR
- 60%
- Buy and hold profit and loss
- $71,428
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
“A blended approach”
March 1, 2024 to August 13, 2025 · Daily chart · Arbitrage Algorithm
The Balanced approach combines accumulation and yield, using both buys and sells to grow Bitcoin exposure while building cash reserves. This hybrid mitigates risk for investors seeking diversification.
The algorithm capitalized on major moves: buying heavily during the September 2024 dip to $53,000 and early 2025 dips below $100,000, while selling half-positions on rallies like July 2025's ATH break. This balanced reinvestment with profit-taking.
This strategy provided the highest overall return by leveraging both asset growth and cash flow, ideal for hedging against uncertainty.
+100.4%
- Buy and hold +71.4%
- Initial capital
- $100,000
- Profit and loss
- $100,448
- Realized profit
- $61,959
- BTC accumulated
- 1.06 BTC
- CAGR
- 61.4%
- Buy and hold profit and loss
- $71,428
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Results
Three different ways to trade all time highs
| Accumulation | Cash yield | Balanced | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial capital | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 |
| Profit and loss | $96,509 | $97,866 | $100,448 |
| Profit and loss (%) | +96.5% | +97.8% | +100.4% |
| Realized profit | $12,195 | $90,585 | $61,959 |
| BTC accumulated | 1.58 BTC | 0.37 BTC | 1.06 BTC |
| CAGR | 59.2% | 60% | 61.4% |
| Buy and hold profit and loss | $71,428 | $71,428 | $71,428 |
| Buy and hold profit and loss (%) | +71.4% | +71.4% | +71.4% |
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.
Replicate the strategy
Do it yourself: the settings behind all three approaches.
Accumulation scenario
- Initial capital
- $100,000
- Entry trade
- Purchase $3,500 when price drops 2.5%
- Exit trade
- Sell $1,5000 when price rises 2.8%
- Sell above cost basis
- Checked
- Time frame
- 6 hour
- Period
- March 1, 2024 to August 13, 2025
Cash yield scenario
- Initial capital
- $100,000
- Entry trade
- Purchase $20,000 when price drops 2.4%
- Exit trade
- Sell $42,000 when price rises 4%
- Sell above cost basis
- Checked
- Time frame
- 1 day
- Period
- March 1, 2024 to August 13, 2025
Balanced scenario
- Initial capital
- $100,000
- Entry trade
- Purchase $20,000 when price drops 3.9%
- Exit trade
- Sell $13,000 when price rises 4%
- Sell above cost basis
- Checked
- Time frame
- 1 day
- Period
- March 1, 2024 to August 13, 2025
Backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For educational purposes only.